Here’s how we think tonight’s election results will go down!
It’s Election Day, which means all of us went to the ballots to cast our votes in various arcane ways.
— Alex Navarro (@alex_navarro) November 8, 2016
It also means we’re here preparing for the storm of electoral results that will hit us in a few hours. It’s going to be a real late night at The Post Turtle! But before that insanity begins, here’s our predictions (and side bets) of tonight’s major races.
Hillary Clinton Will Become the 45th US President Because…
At this point, Donald Trump just doesn’t have the electoral votes to get him elected. While many pollsters continue to stress on the importance of Florida (29 electoral votes) in the 2016 presidential contest – which by all means is important – we’re forgetting that Clinton looks to win North Carolina (15 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), two states the Trump campaign absolutely needs to make a viable run at the presidency.
For a candidate to become president, they’ll need 270 electoral votes. For Trump to get to 270, he’ll need to win states that he has slight leads in (like Arizona and Ohio), try to win the toss-up states that the candidates are currently neck-and-neck in (like North Carolina and Florida), and turn one of the Mid-west states – that usually vote Democratic – red (like Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota). Here’s the thing:
While the popular vote will be relatively close – Clinton winning by a handful of percentage points – the electoral map just isn’t doing Trump any favors. This isn’t going to be a landslide victory for Clinton as it looked like a few weeks ago, but map demographics and early-voting numbers don’t lie. They all point toward Hillary Clinton being our first female president!
- Donald Trump wins close races in Arizona, Ohio, and Utah.
Hillary Clinton wins close races in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.
The Donald Trump campaign will be eager to point out that the popular vote was generally close between the two candidates.
Early voting by minority voting blocs will be the primary factor that pushed Hillary Clinton to the presidency.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson will get 5% of the popular vote.
The concession speech will come from Mike Pence, not Donald Trump.
The Democrats Will Reclaim Control of the Senate Because…
Donald Trump’s presidential run will affect down ballot Senate Republicans, especially those that are running as incumbents. In other words, close Senate races will sway towards the Democrats.
Currently the Democrats control 46 Senate seats to the GOP’s 54. That means for the Democrats to gain senate majority, they’ll have to flip 4 Senate seats (actually 5 if they want majority without having to win the presidency, but we’re going to assume in this scenario that Clinton wins the White House). In this election, there are 34 Senate seats up for grabs this year, 24 of them currently being controlled by Republicans. Out of those 24 seats controlled by Republicans, let’s say 10 of those Senate seats are currently in close races with strong Democratic challengers.
From the polls leading up to election day, it’s safe to say Republican Senate seats in Illinois and Wisconsin look to be going to Democrats Tammy Duckworth and Russ Feingold respectively. That means Democrats would have to flip just 2 more Senate seats in 6 incredibly close races in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Missouri, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Florida; which have Republican incumbents.
Once again, the electoral math just doesn’t look good for Republicans.
- Maggie Hassan (Democrat) narrowly beats Sen. Kelly Ayotte (Incumbent Republican) in a recount for New Hampshire’s Senate seat.
Tammy Duckworth (Democrat) beats Sen. Mark Kirk (Incumbent Republican) by more than 10 points in Illinois’ Senate race.
In a close race, Sen. Marco Rubio (Incumbent Republican) will beat Patrick Murphy (Democrat) in the Florida Senate race.
Even though it will be an incredibly close Senate race, the Democrats will retain retiring Senator Harry Reid’s seat with a win by Catherine Cortez Masto.
Out of the 6 “too-close-to-call” Senate Races (North Carolina, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, Indiana, and Pennsylvania), Democrats will win 3 of them (New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Nevada).
The GOP will use Donald Trump as their scapegoat for losing the Senate.
Republicans Will Retain the House Because…
Unlike the Presidential and Senate races, the electoral math is on the Republican’s side when it comes to the House.
The GOP currently have a massive advantage in the House with 246 House seats to the Democrats’ 186 seats. For the Democrats to gain control of the House, they would need at least 218 seats. So how are the Democrats’ chances of doing that…
Real talk, not good!
Out of the 435 seats in the House, there are only 23 seats that are even slightly competitive. The rest of the House races are all chalk this election cycle. For the Democrats to take the House in 2016, they would have to run the table on basically every competitive House race to even be close to getting a House majority. It took the GOP a consorted effort over multiple election cycles to get the House, even Donald Trump being such an unpopular candidate won’t undo that.
(Photo Credits: Pixabay.com, Google Images)