The Gender Gap in the 2016 Electorate


Or why #NeverTrump group should be thanking the pioneers of the Women’s Suffrage Movement right about now.



With only 26 days till Election Day, Hillary Clinton looks to be gaining a sizable lead over Donald Trump in the presidential race. The fallout from the leaked Access Hollywood video in which Trump brags about being able to sexual assault woman because “he was famous” looks to be taking its toll. As expected, women voters looked to be the most turned off by Trump’s comments on the video. But what’s really shocking is the number of women that are actually getting behind the Clinton campaign because of it.


Recently Nate Silver – of FiveThirtyEight – tweeted out this map.



He then contrasted it to this one.



Based on FiveThirtyEight’s methodology, not only would gender specific polling produce different presidential winners, but each scenario would be an electoral landslide! While it’s generally accepted that males tend to lean towards Trump and women towards Clinton, the gender gap between the two candidates is startling. On average it’s estimated that the swing between the genders is +15% for Clinton with women and +5% for Trump with men!


As we said, while women do gravitate toward Clinton, the recent Clinton surge looks to be more of a referendum against Trump than anything else. And considering a large portion of the electorate is made up of women, if this trend of the women voters filing essentially protest votes against Trump continues, than this race could easily become the bloodbath that many in the GOP had feared.



(Photo Credit:

Leave a Comment

Filed under News

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.