10-Point Expert: The State of the GOP in the 2016 Election Cycle

Guys, we should really talk about what’s happening to the Republican Party at the moment.



We basically think this tweet says it all.



The Republican Party at the moment is going through… an event. Yes, let’s go with “event.” While many have called this a “Republican Civil War”, we feel the state of the Republican Party is more of a perpetual dumster fire that Donald Trump continues to douse with gasoline! Here’s what you need to know about the current state of the GOP in our 10-Point Expert.



Point 1: After the leaked Access Hollywood tape on Friday afternoon, two distinct factions have risen within the Republican Party; those who still endorse Donald Trump as the GOP’s presidential candidate and those who don’t. As you can guess, this has led to complete chaos within the GOP!


Point 2: For months many Republicans were contemplating of pulling their endorsement of Trump for the presidency. The leaked tape of Trump bragging that he sexually assaulted women and got away with it because he was famous looked to be the breaking point. For many, it was the straw that broke the camel’s back!


Point 3: Over the last few days, the list of Republicans not endorsing Trump for president has now grown to a quarter of all elected Republicans (!!!) which now include such high ranking individuals as Arizona Sen. John McCain, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, along with many others.


“The current status of the Republican Party.”


Point 4: While it would be easy to look at the many Republicans who are pulling their endorsement of Trump as altruistic, in reality it’s just smart politics. Many of the Republicans who had originally dropped their endorsement for Trump also happened to be in close congressional races in 2016. Incumbent senators like Illinois’ Mark Kirk and New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte had early-on said they wouldn’t be supporting Trump in hopes of not alienating independent voters. After Trump’s sexist comments on the Access Hollywood tape, other GOP senators like John McCain have also pulled their endorsement in hopes of Trump’s comments not affecting their senate races as well.


Point 5: For the other Republicans that have also pulled their endorsement of Trump, their concern has less to do with close political elections and more to do with alienating a crucial voting bloc; women. Considering women make so much of the US electorate – about a quarter – alienating that base wouldn’t be the smartest move for some Republicans currently in Congress. For many in the GOP, if a Donald Trump endorsement means losing a big chunk of their constituency in future electoral contests, then not endorsing their party’s presidential candidate is the smartest move, oddly enough.


Point 6: On the flip side however, there are also those Republicans who do want to pull their endorsement of Trump, but can’t because he excites a particular base that they would need in their re-election efforts. In a Politico/Morning Consult poll, they found that 74% of GOP voters wanted conservative lawmakers to stand by Trump. So for Republican officials that represent a large conservative constituency, they’re put in the rough spot of continuing to back Trump for his presidential bid because their core base wants them to, but at the same time running the risk of alienating potential independent voters – particularly women – in the process.



Point 7: Based on reports, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan looks to fall in the group of Republicans that would drop his support for Trump, but is stuck with endorsing him as president. In Speaker Ryan’s case however, his reason for staying has more to do with making sure the Republicans keep control of the House.


Point 8: In Speaker Ryan’s political calculus, while pulling support for Trump would give him short-term political gains with independent voters, potentially it could also cause their conservative base to revolt against the party or worse, dampen enthusiasm causing their base to stay home on Election Day. Considering Speaker Ryan is currently one of the highest-ranking leaders in the Republican Party, his assessment looks to be a solid one. However, that didn’t stop Speaker Ryan from saying he wouldn’t be campaigning for Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential contest and instead focus on keeping Republican control of the House.


Point 9: Between Speaker Ryan announcing he wouldn’t be campaigning for Trump and a litany of Republicans outright pulling their support, Trump isn’t taking the recent news all that well.




Point 10: As you may have guessed, for the Republican Party, this isn’t good news. Only a month away from Election Day and a large swath of their party’s elected officials won’t be backing their OWN PARTY’S NOMINEE!! That is insane and unprecedented in a modern presidential cycle! Not only that, but because of the leaked tape, there’s potential that it could affect the GOP’s down ballot (ie Senate and House races) which would be disastrous. Now, not only does it look like the Republicans are going to lose a very winnable presidential contest, but they could also lose the majorities they have in both the House and Senate, which would mean Democrats would have total control of the legislature! As of right now, the GOP is in complete shambles and what happens next is anyone’s guess…



(Photo Credit: Pixabay.com, Google Images)  


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