If there was one word to describe last night’s primaries it would be, “inevitability!”
Last night’s primaries proved one thing, that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will be your 2016 nominees for the Democratic and Republican tickets respectively. There is very little doubt about that now. But that doesn’t mean there weren’t any important takeaways from last night’s primaries. Here’s what you need to know.
The Inevitability of It All
Primary night web traffic isn’t what it used to be. Clearest sign that these nominations are settled.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) April 27, 2016
At some point in presidential primaries, everything starts to slow down. During this time the people feverishly checking on primary results are only election nerds and voting turnout gets lower as we go into the May and June primaries. Granted things pickup once again as the general election becomes a topic of conversation in a few months, but for that time being, things just slow down.
So as crazy as the 2016 primaries have been, things finally look to have become a little quieter. So what does that all mean? In terms of the 2016 primaries, it means that the nominations are pretty much settled.
With the exception of Rhode Island going to Bernie Sanders last night, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump won every other primary last night in decisive fashion to basically make their respective nominations all but inevitable. While many outlets today will say that Indiana is the next big battle ground for the GOP primaries or that Sanders will fight all the way to the Democratic National Convention, in reality everyone can see the writing on the wall.
Today there’s an inevitability to the 2016 presidential primaries that wasn’t there before and make no mistake, this is important! Because if the general public believes you have the nomination, no amount of delegates in California will change your electoral fate.
Right now, that looks to be the case.
The Real Winner of Last Night: Mary Pat Christie
Whether it was the eye roll heard around the world or this:
Mary Pat one-ups Christie in the back drop with her best Adele: "Hello…it's me" pic.twitter.com/8GExqf3dvL
— Josh Holmes (@HolmesJosh) April 27, 2016
I think we can all agree that the real winner of last night was Chris Christie’s wife! Also note to the Trump campaign, maybe next time you don’t have the Christies – whether that be in the Chris or Mary Pat variant – be the backdrop of Trump’s speeches. Just sayin’…
Conventional wisdom states that a candidate always pivots their views in the general election. The same talking points that helped them to clinch the nomination in their primary, change for the general election. It’s not the compromising of values per say, it’s just good politics! So for Democrats that usually means less talk about social programs that can raise taxes and for Republicans that means less hardline stances on controversial social issues like abortion. In general, both candidates take their talking points and bring them towards the middle in hopes of attracting independent voters to their cause.
Well, here’s what Donald Trump thinks about your “conventional wisdom.”
Last night’s speech pretty much made one thing clear, he’s going to be Donald Trump in the general election, for better or for worse. That means questionable comments about Muslims, thinking all illegal immigrants are criminals or rapists (and some that are good), but most of all reminding everyone – and we mean EVERYONE – that Hillary Clinton is a women and she’s using it to her advantage!
The question many pundits have asked is whether this strategy makes any sense in terms of the general election? Because as of right now, Trump’s speeches insult women, immigrants from the South of the US border, and Muslims on a regular basis. That’s a lot of voting blocs he’s alienating. He clearly believes this strategy of #StillTrump will get him to the White House, conventional wisdom be damned!
If we were gambling, this doubling down on the “Trump Persona” is probably not going to work, but then again we’ve been wrong before. The fact that Trump doesn’t know how to be a politician has helped him all but wrap-up the GOP nomination. Him not knowing any better has been one of his biggest boons in the 2016 presidential primaries.
However the hope is, for us anyway, the American public does.
Let’s Check in on the #NeverTrump Movement
Game of Delegates (Delegate Totals for 04/27/16)
Democratic Delegate Totals (Need 2,383 Delegates to Clinch the Nomination):
1) Hillary Clinton – 2,151 Delegates (519 Superdelegates)
2) Bernie Sanders – 1,338 Delegates (39 Superdelegates)
Republican Delegate Totals (Need 1,237 Delegates to Clinch the Nomination):
1) Donald Trump – 954 Delegates
2) Ted Cruz – 562 Delegates
3) John Kasich – 153 Delegates
(Photo Credit: Donald Trump’s Instagram, Google Images, Twitter, HBO)