Sanders up, Trump down! (And other thoughts, but that basically covers it.)
Yesterday the Wisconsin primaries happened and if you hate Donald Trump or love Bernie Sanders, then last night was your night! Sanders won a close primary with Hillary Clinton and Trump got trounced by Ted Cruz. So what are the bigger takeaways from the night? Let’s get into them!
Delegate Math Don’t Lie
After a poor showing in Wisconsin last night, there have been MANY headlines this morning centering on the demise of Donald Trump and his campaign. While we have made it known that we aren’t the biggest fans of Trump’s policies or his stances on certain issues, still all this feels a little premature to think Trump isn’t the favorite to get the GOP nomination for multiple reasons…
- Even if you were to account for the delegates that Ted Cruz won in Wisconsin, Trump is still +200 delegates ahead of the rest of the field.
Delegate rich states like New York (95 delegates) and California (172 delegates) are looking like they’re going to Trump.
While getting 494 delegates – the number of delegates needed for Trump to clinch the GOP nomination – will be difficult from now till the convention, but saying that he has “no chance” after Wisconsin is a little disingenuous.
The idea that either John Kasich (who has less delegates than Marco Rubio and has only won his own home state of Ohio) or Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (who hasn’t even ran in these primaries) would be the ones who would benefit most from Trump’s poor performance in Wisconsin is absurd! If anyone is going to benefit from Trump not getting the nomination, it would be Cruz.
Yet for Trump not to get the nomination BUT have more delegates than either Kasich or Cruz, even if he doesn’t get the 1,237 needed to clinch the nomination, well… that just undermines the entire primary process, which doesn’t help with the GOP’s legitimacy in any conceivable way.
The point is this; while many within the Republican Party may not like Donald Trump being their nominee the truth is he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon! Even if he goes on an electoral slide like he did in Wisconsin, he’s still currently the party’s leader.
Delegate math don’t lie!
Last Night Just Over 3,000 People in Wisconsin Voted for Jeb Bush in the GOP Primaries
Clinton’s “Berning” Problem
The question for the Hillary Clinton campaign has never been about how to get Bernie Sanders supporters to vote for her in the primaries, but how to get them to vote for her in the general election. The general assumption has always been that if Trump was to be the GOP’s nominee, Sanders voters would automatically flock to Clinton in the general election.
That may not be the case.
In a recent survey by McClatchy-Marist, they found that 25% of Sanders supporters would not vote for Clinton if she were to become the nominee! This is important for a number of reasons ranging from her inability to not attract anyone that doesn’t remember what Crystal Pepsi is to constantly bending on issues in hopes to garner new voters.
If you understand this, then you get why Wisconsin was always going to be a problem for Hillary Clinton. The demographics of that state never did her any favors. With a mixture of college students in Madison, generally more liberal cities like Milwaukee, and working-class White voters who don’t connect with Clinton (but aren’t Republican either) in rural areas, make this state a demographic nightmare for her electorally.
While we think Clinton will still be the nominee, because the delegate math still looks to be in her favor. However this problem of not being able to attract Sanders supporters to her cause when the general election arrives is not going away! For that reason, last night’s Wisconsin loss could be a symptom of a much bigger problem for Clinton going forward.
Delegate Math by the Numbers (From 04/06/16)
The GOP Delegate Count (1,237 Needed to Clinch the Nomination):
1) Donald Trump: 743 Delegates
2) Ted Cruz: 517 Delegates
3) John Kasich: 143 Delegates
The Democratic Delegate Count (2,383 Needed to Clinch the Nomination):
1) Hillary Clinton: 1,749 Delegates (469 Superdelegates)
2) Bernie Sanders: 1,061 Delegates (31 Superdelegates)
(Photo Credits: Pixabay.com, Google Images, Bernie Sanders Instagram)