If we had enough money, we would insert lyrics to The Beatles “The Long and Winding Road” right here. Because that’s basically the soundtrack to last night’s New York primary.
As the New York primary results started to come in last night, you couldn’t help but think of this classic Simpsons clip.
Alright, maybe we couldn’t help but think of that classic Simpsons clip. Regardless, the New York primaries ended up being the beginning of the end for the 2016 primaries in many respects. Here are some of the thoughts from last night.
The Million Dollar Question
In a Republican primary that has been anything but predictable, after how badly Donald Trump curb stomped both Ted Cruz and John Kasich in last night’s New York primary, we now know that these three things will be true by the time we get to the GOP Convention this July.
1) Donald Trump will have more delegates than either Ted Cruz or John Kasich.
2) Donald Trump will have won more states in the Republican primaries than Ted Cruz or John Kasich.
3) Donald Trump will have won more votes than Ted Cruz or John Kasich.
Now if you were to add that to polls showing that the majority of Republicans believe the party should back whichever candidate wins the most delegates, then if there were to be a brokered convention, how could the GOP not give the nomination to Trump without compromising the Republican primaries credibility? (Hint: They probably can’t!)
Are We Still Doing Phrasing?
Hey Remember Sanders Supporters, Don’t Kill the Messenger!
After NY, to win pledged delegate majority, Bernie will need to win CA by ~20% and states like PA and NJ by ~10%. https://t.co/aiISMZFDUS
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 20, 2016
As always, be civil in the comments.
The Bernie Sanders Conundrum
This morning must have been an interesting one for Democratic Party leaders. As this primary season has marched on, there have been significant momentum shifts between the Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton campaigns. So much so, that in the last couple of weeks there were talks of whether the Democratic Convention might be brokered due to Sanders winning a litany of states which included Washington and Wisconsin. But last night that all changed.
With Hillary Clinton winning the New York primary in a decisive manner, to be frank, Sanders getting the nomination by any stretch of the imagination is extremely unlikely at this point. While there was definite relief among party leaders, it also put them in a very precarious position. With Clinton now looking like the foregone nominee, do you let Sanders continue fighting or do you pressure him to concede in hopes of starting to unify the Democratic Party?
For most politicians that have come up as the runner-ups in primary races, when they decided to concede was never that big of a deal. After all, in most primaries, the party’s front-runner has a stronghold on the majority of voting blocs this late in the election cycle. However, Sanders’ ability to capture the hearts and minds of Millennials has put him in an interesting position. If he were to bow out early from the Democratic primary, the party as a whole could finally start coming together and mend fences after what has become a very contentious primary. Then again, having Sanders continuing to battle to the convention would actually have more young-voters be registered as Democrats for the upcoming general election!
For the record, Sanders has stated that he has no plans to drop out of the race and based on the tweets of many of his supporters, they have no intention of backing anyone else at the moment; even Clinton. It’s a complicated problem that the Democratic Party faces.
Then again, it could always be worse…
Even If He Was More “Presidential” Last Night, He’s Still Trump
Game of Delegates (Where the Delegate Numbers Stand After the New York Primary)
The Republican Delegate Count (Need 1,237 Delegates to Clinch the Nomination)
1) Donald Trump (845 Delegates)
2) Ted Cruz (559 Delegates)
3) John Kasich (148 Delegates)
The Democratic Delegate Count (Need 2,383 Delegates to Clinch the Nomination)
1) Hillary Clinton 1,930 Delegates (502 Superdelegates)
2) Bernie Sanders 1,151 Delegates (38 Superdelegates)
(Photo Credits: Pixabay.com, Bernie Sanders Instagram, HBO, Google Images)