What to Watch for in Tonight’s Primaries (aka Super Tuesday 3)

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We’re suggesting that we full on stupid with these Tuesday primary naming conventions and call today “Super Tuesday 3: All or Nothing!”

 

 

Considering what’s on the line for the Bernie Sanders campaign and the glut of winner-take-all states at stake for the Republicans, this could legitimately be bigger than the actual Super Tuesday! See that’s how you know it’s a trilogy, because we’re already hyping it to be bigger than the original!

 

Hype Super Tuesday

 

Anyway, here are some things to look for as the results start coming in tonight. Also predictions.

 

 

Time is a Flat Circle

 

Since the beginning of the Democratic primaries, it looks as if we have been stuck in a predicting pattern.

 

First we say even though Bernie Sanders did well in [INSERT STATE NAME], his chances don’t look good in these primaries. Queue Sanders supporters saying we’re “biased towards Hillary Clinton”, then of course Sanders loses substantially in the following primaries, which then we claim Clinton as the eventual nominee for the Democratic Party, only for Sanders to pull a surprise win once again, thus starting the whole cycle a new!

 

For Bernie Sanders to make this a legitimate contest with Hillary Clinton, he’ll have to show that he can be viable in the Midwest. Specifically when it comes to Ohio. Some polls show it very close between Sanders and Clinton in that state and if he can show strong showings in both Missouri and Illinois – like he did in Michigan – then we’re talking about Sanders gaining legitimate momentum again. Like we did in fall of last year…

 

Like we said, time is a flat circle.

 

 

The Buckeye State

Ohio

 

Speaking of Ohio, the state looks to be the big prize in tonight’s primaries. With 143 delegates up for grabs on the Democratic side and 63 delegates for the Republicans, Ohio has become the central focus for tonight, which coincidently is the first time it has been the central focus for anything! #ChiTown4Life

 

Easy digs at Ohio aside, for Sanders – as we said earlier – it is make-or-break time for his campaign. That means if he wants to make a legitimate challenge for the Democratic nomination, it goes through Ohio. As for Establishment Republicans, to stop Donald Trump means you have to hope for a brokered convention at this point.

 

And to get a brokered convention, John Kasich has to win Ohio. Which on the bright side for the GOP Establishment, is totally doable.

 

 

Winner-Take-All

Winner-Take-All

 

Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans have four winner-take-all states up for contention today. That means, for states like Florida (99 delegates), Illinois (69 delegates), Missouri (49 delegates), and Ohio (63 delegates), whoever comes first in the primaries gets all of that state’s delegates!

 

For Donald Trump, if he were to win even three out of the four states tonight, him getting to that magic number of 1,237 delegates – which would clinch the GOP nomination – would all but be inevitable. However, if the GOP Establishment can get John Kasich and Marco Rubio to win Ohio and Florida respectively, then they have a chance at a brokered convention, leaving the nomination up in the air. Or more importantly, leaving the nomination to not be Trump’s.

 

For the GOP, tonight will go a long way in seeing what the nature of the Republican Party looks like for the next couple of months.

 

 

Predictions

Predictions

 

Florida

 

Democratic Primary (214 Delegates):

1) Hillary Clinton

2) Bernie Sanders

 

Republican Primary (99 Delegates):

1) Donald Trump

2) Marco Rubio

3) Ted Cruz

4) John Kasich

 

Side Bets:

  • Clinton wins big in Florida over Sanders.

  • Trump wins Florida decisively (ie Rubio is 10 percentage points behind Trump in second).

 

 

Illinois

 

Democratic Primary (156 Delegates):

1) Hillary Clinton

2) Bernie Sanders

 

Republican Primary (69 Delegates):

1) Donald Trump

2) John Kasich

3) Ted Cruz

4) Marco Rubio

 

Side Bets:

  • Clinton will barely eke out a win against Sanders.

  • There will be a very impressive showing for Sanders in Chicago, which will make him competitive in Illinois.

  • Trump will win handily, but Kasich will have a strong showing in second.

 

 

Missouri

 

Democratic Primary (71 Delegates):  

1) Bernie Sanders

2) Hillary Clinton

 

Republican Primary (49 Delegates):

1) Ted Cruz

2) Donald Trump

3) John Kasich

4) Marco Rubio

 

Side Bets:

  • Sanders will handily win Missouri (by five or more percentage points).

  • Cruz will pull the upset and take this winner-take-all state.

 

 

North Carolina

 

Democratic Primary (107 Delegates):

1) Hillary Clinton

2) Bernie Sanders

 

Republican Primary (69 Delegates):

1) Donald Trump

2) Ted Cruz

3) Marco Rubio

4) John Kasich

 

Side Bets:

  • Clinton will crush Sanders in this primary (will bring in 75% of the vote)

  • Trump and Cruz will be in a close contest and essentially split the majority of delegates between them.

 

 

Ohio

 

Democratic Primary (143 Delegates):

1) Hillary Clinton

2) Bernie Sanders

 

Republican Primary (63 Delegates):

1) John Kasich

2) Donald Trump

3) Ted Cruz

4) Marco Rubio

 

Side Bets:

  • Kasich will win Ohio easily, taking the winner-take-all state.

  • Clinton will win in a VERY CLOSE contest with Sanders (the difference will be less than a percentage point).

 

 

If We Were to Bet the House on One Bet:

This is a representation of Marco Rubio’s night, once again…

Marge Drinking

 

 

(Photo Credits: Google Images, Pixabay.com, Frinkiac.com)

 

6 Comments

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6 Responses to What to Watch for in Tonight’s Primaries (aka Super Tuesday 3)

  1. Anonymous

    I agree with the author, the only thing that is certain tonight is that Marco Rubio has a rough night.

  2. Anonymous

    Once again this website undermines Sanders’ chances. Big shock. #Feeltheburn

    • Anonymous

      Hold on! I’m a Sanders supporter and I think the Post Turtle has generally been fair to Sanders. But if he wins big in the midwest tonight, they should at least start recognizing him as a bigger threat to Hillary.

  3. Andrew

    Missouri going to Cruz is a bold prediction!

  4. Ahmed

    Forget Cruz winning in Missouri, Sanders coming on top I think would be the bigger upset.

  5. Trump's Hair Piece

    I hate Trump, but I think he wins the 3/4 winner take all states tonight.

    Also Sanders will surprise people in the Midwest primaries. Don’t sleep on Sanders!

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