Things to Watch for in Today’s Presidential Primaries

Vote Primary

Dear Media,

Just because there are multiple primaries on the same day doesn’t make it “Super!”

Your Friends at The Post Turtle

 

 

I guess we’re calling today Super Tuesday 2?

 

But Why

 

Good question Kevin Spacey, good question… Anyway, here’s what to watch for in today’s primaries.

 

 

 

Winning is Relative

 

Donald Trump held his usual press conference slash political rally on Saturday as the final polling centers were starting to close. Based on his speech, one would be forgiven to think Trump had a relatively good night.

 

Buuuut, he didn’t.

 

Saturday night was a less than ideal night for Trump as he suffered losses in both Kansas and Maine. Not to mention even in the states that Trump did win in – Kentucky and Louisiana – he took in around the same number of delegates as Cruz had. In almost every political metric, Trump lost on Saturday. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he was lying.

 

The dirty little secret in politics is that winning has always been relative. On Saturday Trump had a rough night because he basically split candidates with Ted Cruz in almost every race. On the flip-side however, Cruz was looked to have a “strong showing”, even though he faired about even with Trump.

 

Messaging aside, “winning” for either the Trump or Cruz campaigns has become completely relative and it tells a lot about the Republican Establishment’s perspective in the 2016 GOP primaries. For them, anyway of denying Trump the 1,237 delegates needed to gain the GOP nomination is a win. Even if that person happens to be Ted Cruz.

 

Today, with Trump expected to take Michigan (59 delegates) and Mississippi (40 delegates) – the two biggest states in today’s primaries – victory for anyone that is not named Trump would just be to take away delegates from both of those states and hope you can steal several states in the March 15th primaries where there’ll be a glut of winner-take-all states up for grabs.

 

After all, winning is relative.

 

 

Northern Exposure

Latino Vote Button

 

For the Democratic primaries today, all eyes will be on Michigan. Even though Hillary Clinton looks to handily win the state, a big question comes whether Bernie Sanders can attract minority voters to his campaign’s cause. While minority voters in the Southern states have decided to back Clinton in these 2016 primaries, there has been talk that the Sanders campaign would have better luck attracting the African-American and Latino blocs in the Northern states.

 

Even though polls show Clinton having just as much of a stronghold in the Northern states in terms of minority votes, Michigan looks to be the first litmus test to see if that is in fact the case. If Clinton does get the same support today as she has gotten from Southern states, then the question of Clinton clinching the Democratic nomination becomes more of a question of “when” rather than “if.”

 

 

Predictions

Predictions

 

(IMPORTANT NOTE: States like Hawaii and Idaho haven’t been polled very well, so it’s almost impossible to make solid predictions on them without completely taking a shot in the dark. In that case, we’re just going to try and predict the Michigan and Mississippi primaries.)    

 

Mississippi GOP Primaries:

1) Donald Trump

2) Ted Cruz

3) Marco Rubio

4) John Kasich

 

Side Bets:

  • It will be relatively close race between Trump and Cruz.

 

 

Mississippi Democratic Primaries:

1) Hillary Clinton

2) Bernie Sanders

 

Side Bets:

  • Hillary Clinton will flirt with getting 75% of the vote. In other words, Clinton should dominate this state.

 

 

Michigan GOP Primaries:

1) Donald Trump

2) John Kasich

3) Ted Cruz

4) Marco Rubio

 

Side Bets:

  • Kasich will do surprisingly well in Michigan, getting 25% of the vote.

  • Rubio won’t break the 15% threshold, which means he won’t be getting any delegates in Michigan.

 

 

Michigan Democratic Primaries:

1) Hillary Clinton

2) Bernie Sanders

 

Side Bets:

  • Much like in the Southern states, Clinton will win the majority of the minority vote.

 

 

(Picture: Pixabay.com, Google Images)

 

4 Comments

Filed under News

4 Responses to Things to Watch for in Today’s Presidential Primaries

  1. Greg

    Ummmm, his name is President Frank Underwood, show some damn respect! LOL

  2. Anonymous

    What happened to Marco Rubio? He just fell off the earth in the Rep. Primaries.

  3. Anonymous

    The article makes a really good point about winning. If you’re not Trump or Hillary, all you can hope for is taking away delegates from the front runners.

  4. Anonymous

    I think TPT is buying into John Kasich a little hard onto the midwest states, because second in Michigan is generous.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.