Two states having primary elections today means twice the fun!! #PoliticalMath
Today is the day that we actually start knowing how these 2016 primary elections will break down. Well, maybe… We said that a couple of times before and both primaries look to be still pretty chaotic. Regardless for both the Democrats and the Republicans, today should answer a lot of questions we’ve been having as we get deeper into primary season. Here’s what to look for as the results start coming in tonight for the Nevada Democratic caucuses and South Carolina GOP primaries.
The Eternal Question of Sanders and Minority Voters
Nevada could finally give us an answer to a question we’ve been asking ourselves for ages; does the Bernie Sanders campaign actually attract minority voters?
Nevada is home to a large Latino population with 62% of them being registered voters. Many political analysts have speculated that minority voting blocs – like the Latino voting bloc in Nevada and the African-American voting bloc in South Carolina – will go to Hillary Clinton. But considering the push that the Sanders campaign has made in the last few weeks to attract minority voters and how close many outlets are calling Nevada’s Democratic primaries, there is some speculation that Sanders could actually take a good chunk of the minority vote away from Clinton. If that were the case, then for the Clinton campaign, Bernie Sanders would have elevated himself from a political nuisance to DEFCON 1 Level political threat!
There Will Be Blood
The primaries thus far have sustained campaigns that should have been doomed from the moment they were conceived. Both GOP campaigns of John Kasich and Ben Carson have been buying time after their impressive wins in New Hampshire and Iowa respectively. In South Carolina, their luck may have just run out. As we get deeper into primary season, eventually the chaos that is known as the GOP presidential primaries should start to subside and favorites for the Republican nomination should start surfacing. Which in that case, candidates like Kasich and Carson should be acceptable losses for a more stable Republican primary. The South Carolina primaries – with its strong Republican Party ties – should be the primaries to finally kill off both the Kasich and Carson campaigns.
Also let’s not forget about the GOP Establishment in this conversation. Every time we think an Establishment Republican like Marco Rubio or once upon a time Jeb Bush, is ready to take the reins of the Republican nomination, a major setback happens that makes the GOP primaries even more chaotic than it was before. If Donald Trump and Ted Cruz can get the two top spots again in these primaries, then GOP Establishment candidates could be in real trouble.
Then there is Jeb Bush. If he underperforms in South Carolina, it could be the beginning of the end for him as well.
Trump and the Evangelical Vote
It’s been an eventful week for Donald Trump. After all, not every day do you get into a war of words with a religious leader to 1.2 million people around the world! Yet even after throwing some considerable shade at the FREAKING POPE (!!!), an interesting wrinkle in the 2016 GOP primaries remain; is Trump actually attracting the Evangelical bloc to his campaign?
Granted Trump does have the backing of Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr., but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Trump is attracting Evangelical Christians to his campaign. Polls have been showing the Evangelical bloc flocking to Trump in the past couple of months, but conventional wisdom would dictate that Ted Cruz would be the more viable candidate which they would latch onto. If either Trump or Cruz captures the GOP nomination, they’ll need the Evangelical bloc to do so. The vote in South Carolina will go a long way of answering who is actually garnering their attention.
South Carolina GOP Primaries:
1) Donald Trump
2) Marco Rubio
3) Ted Cruz
4) Jeb Bush
5) John Kasich
6) Ben Carson
- Trump, Rubio, and Cruz will only get pledge delegates.
Trump and Rubio split the majority of Evangelical voters.
Nevada Democratic Caucuses:
1) Hillary Clinton
2) Bernie Sanders
- Hillary Clinton will overwhelmingly get the Latino Vote.
(Photo Credits: Pixabay, Donald Trump Instagram, Bernie Sanders Instagram, Amazon)