There are many reasons why the Latino bloc could shape the 2016 presidential race. There are also many reasons why it might not…
Recently the Pew Research Center conducted a survey, as they are accustomed to do, specifically revolving around the Latino voting bloc and their chances of going out to vote. What you got were interesting findings from one of the largest growing voting blocs in the US. Here are some of our takeaways from the Pew Research study.
(Important Note: In the Pew Research report, they interchange the words Latino and Hispanic quite a bit in the study, which is kind of a major oversight when you’re talking about demographics. Here’s a video explaining the difference between the two groups. For our takeaways, we’re assuming they mean the Latino voting bloc based on the numbers they’re throwing around. Regardless, GET YOUR SHIT TOGETHER PEW RESEARCH CENTER!!)
Millennials Make Up the Largest Share in the Latino Bloc (More Than Any Other Group)
This is the ultimate of double edged swords. On one-hand, you have one of the fastest growing age demographics in the US, which for all intents and purposes is still growing! On the other, Millennials are so GOD DAMN FICKLE when it comes to voting! In the last two presidential elections, Millennials came out in droves and was one of the prime reasons Barack Obama was elected to two presidential terms. Yet in the two primaries during the Obama Presidency, Millennials mostly stayed at home. It’s hard to say if Millennials in the Latino bloc are being drawn to any candidate (Democrat or Republican) thus far, but if someone can attract this very specific base, that could be the X-factor that decides our next president.
Who Will the Latino Bloc Vote For? History Says Democrat.
If history is any indication of where the Latino bloc is currently swaying, then the voting block will get behind a Democratic candidate in 2016. As the chart shows, Latinos have always gotten behind Democrats when it came to presidential races. The closest margin came in both George W. Bush presidential runs where he actively went after the Latino vote and even then only shrunk it down to an 18% Democratic advantage in 2004. Also considering the harsh rhetoric that leading GOP candidates like Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have pushed regarding immigration, this very well could be a major problem for the Republicans come the general election!
Latinos Are Just Not Voting
Then again at the end of the day, all this could be a non-issue for Republicans. Even though the Latino bloc is one of the fastest growing in the US, they also have a lower turnout when compared to Blacks or Whites that go out to vote. The graph above tells the entire story, that even though the Latino bloc continues to be the fastest growing eligible voting bloc in the US, their turnout doesn’t even break half of those that are eligible to vote. According to the Pew Research study, Latino non-voters topped out in 2014 at 18 million (!!), more than any other demographic! If this trend continues in 2016, then the harsh rhetoric by some in the GOP may be more calculated risk, than political suicide…
(Photo Credits: Google Images, Pew Research Center)