Two things to think about before tonight’s GOP Primary debate.
Another One Bites the Dust?
Before going into the last debate, my guess wouldn’t have been Scott Walker dropping out of the GOP primary. But then again, here we are.
As we get closer to the first set of primaries early next year, the list will have to start thinning out.
Well, eventually it will have to start thinning out…
The Democrats have already started doing this with both Jim Webb and Lincoln Chaffee bowing out, thus finally getting a clearer picture of what a legitimate Democratic Primary ballot would look like deep into the election cycle.
On the GOP side however, it’s still basically a cluster fuck.
Sadly, CNBC continues doing the “pre-debate” debate of the candidates that originally couldn’t qualify for the actual debates due to poor polling numbers. So it’s not crazy to foresee George Pataki, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, or Lindsey Graham bowing out before the next GOP debate on November 10th.
But out of the ten candidates on tonight’s GOP stage, don’t be surprised if you see John Kasich step down before then as well. He’s been telling anyone who listens how sick he is of the Republicans and has yet to create any meaningful traction. Tonight’s debate could play a huge role in if he decides to stick around.
Also speaking of sticking around…
No This Isn’t a Make or Break Debate for Jeb Bush
If you were to ask any old timer that has been around for multiple political primaries, they would tell you looking at polls at this stage is a fool’s errand. In the primaries, it’s all about the endorsements!
In a political primary the two corner stones of a successful campaign are always political endorsements and money. The first gives you an army of “political capital” in which you can send politicians to go out and give stump speeches to their supporters or more importantly, attack other primary candidates without getting your hands dirty! The second gives you actual capital, which we’ll let Curtis “50 Cent” Jackson explain virtues of amassing that…
Yes votes are important, but primary voters are fickle. And right now the GOP primary is in disarray, which means voters are even more fickle than they usually would be! So for those that say Jeb Bush NEEDS THIS DEBATE, they’re fundamentally misunderstanding the volatility of a primary.
Bush has amassed a war chest of both endorsements and money so far in this campaign cycle. He can wait and afford to play the long game. Has his campaign hit a bit of a rough patch? Yes. Would it help him immensely to have a strong debate performance tonight? Absolutely!
But to say this specific debate – or really any debate – will make or break his campaign is just ludicrous. Bush is in this one for the long haul.
(Photo Credits: CNBC, YouTube, jebbush’s Instagram)