We aren’t predicting anything here folks, these are just observations.
Ok, we’re going to level with you. Here at The Post Turtle, we think talking about polling numbers this early in the primary season is like carbo-loading for a race that is still five months away.
(Too Much Pasta “Take it down a notch Jim, you race is still five months away. Also it’s 5K not an Ironman competition. Reasonable bites!”)
But that doesn’t mean these polls are completely useless. They can tell us quite a bit about potential trends or even reaffirm some major points in upcoming elections. That’s how the Sept. 10th Quinnipiac Poll regarding the Democratic primary caught our eye.
It’s important to reiterate that these aren’t predictions, more like general observations. Here are some takeaways from the most recent Quinnipiac Poll on the Democratic primary.
Clinton Feels the “Bern.” Maybe.
While some of us are still pretty confident (Note from Our EC Sumantra: Like me!!) that Hillary Clinton will be winning the Democratic primary, at the same time we shouldn’t just scoff at Bernie Sanders’ surge in August. Based on the past Quinnipiac Polls, Clinton has dropped 11 points in two months in the state of Iowa!! In this scenario, Sanders leads Clinton 41% to 40% for the first time in any poll!
However, we shouldn’t assume it’s an indication that Clinton is in any REAL trouble either. While it would be laughably embarrassing if the Clinton campaign were to lose BOTH Iowa and New Hampshire to Sanders, the real test comes if Sanders can get minority votes in the Southern states, where Clinton polls the strongest. Till then, the Clinton campaign is paying no mind to these numbers.
But… there were two things the Clinton campaign should most definitely be concerned about.
The Biden Effect
One of the concerns that the Clinton campaign should have is regarding to whether “Smooth” Joe Biden will enter the 2016 fray!
In their recent poll, when Biden was one of the candidates surveyors could choose from, he attracted 12% of the vote. Pretty respectable. But the real shocker came when he wasn’t on the ballot. In that instance Clinton beat Sanders 47% to 44% respectively!
This makes sense because Biden and Clinton would attract the same base; “Establishment Democrats.” So if Biden were to enter the race, that would divide Clinton’s “Traditional Democrat” base, leaving Sanders the more liberal Democrats of the party. Sanders by himself can’t win the nomination, but if Biden were to split Clinton’s base, suddenly it could be anyone’s game.
The second – and maybe the bigger problem with the Clinton campaign – is that people don’t trust Hillary Clinton. And not just regular people, Democrats!
In this survey, 1 in 3 Democrats felt she is not honest or trustworthy. That’s a major problem if YOUR OWN BASE doesn’t trust you! Granted it’s been a rough couple of weeks for Clinton with Sanders surging and the relative vagueness that has shrouded over the Clinton email controversy. With her recent public apology on the matter, she hopes to put it behind her. But if Democrats continue to distrust her, then this Sanders annoyance suddenly becomes a big issue for the Clinton campaign.
(Photo Credit: Google Images, The Onion, YouTube)