The Post Turtle’s Guide to the Iran Nuclear Deal in Congress (Update #3)

Nuclear Deal Simpsons

You want to know if Congress is going to agree with the Iran nuclear deal? Then you came to the right place!

 

 

We’ve talked about the Iran nuclear deal before on this site. We actually think it’s a solid deal!

 

But not everyone sees it that way.

 

Republicans hate the deal and it looks like a few Democrats are also joining in on the chorus. Yet over the past few days, there have been many questions regarding if the deal would get approval from Congress. Here’s our breakdown. (Quick Note: We’ll be updating this as Congress gets closer to the vote.)  

 

(Update #3: With 41 senators backing the Iran nuclear deal, the GOP doesn’t even have enough votes to bring a disapproval resolution out of the Senate! That means it is all but inevitable that the Iran nuclear deal passes. We updated the guide accordingly. You can read more about it here.) 

 

(Update #2: As we were literally posting Update #1,  Maryland Senator Barbara Mikulski became the 34th Senator to back the Iran Nuclear deal. That means if everyone votes as they are expected to, the Iran nuclear deal should pass!)

 

(Update #1: While the math was favoring President Obama for quite some time, now it looks all but inevitable that the Iran deal will pass. With Democratic Senators Bob Casey and Chris Coons backing the Iran nuclear deal, the number of senators needed to pass the deal goes up to 33 (Note: President Obama needs 34 senators to support the deal for it to pass). It looks like the passage of the deal will come from the Senate. The guide has been updated accordingly.)

 

 

The Situation

The Situation

 

Basically it comes down to this. President Obama has already stated that he would veto any legislation that would kill or “dilute” the negotiated Iran nuclear deal in any way. So opponents of the deal in Congress would need a two-thirds majority to override President Obama’s veto, killing the Iran nuclear deal.

 

 

What Opponents of the Nuclear Deal Need:

  • Of the 435 votes in the House, you need at least 290 members to go against the deal and override the veto.

  • Of the 100 votes in the Senate, you need at least 67 members to go against the deal and override the veto.

  • IMPORTANT POINT: For Congress to kill the Iran nuclear deal you need BOTH the House and Senate to override the veto.

 

 

What Supporters of the Nuclear Deal Need:

  • Of the 435 votes in the House, you need 146 members to be in support of the deal, which would then uphold President Obama’s veto.

  • Of the 100 votes in the Senate, you need 34 members to be in support of the deal, which would then uphold President Obama’s veto.

  • IMPORTANT POINT: Unlike overriding a veto, to uphold a veto you just NEED ONE of the houses – either the Senate or the House – to support the deal.

 

 

It’s All About the Democrats

Democrats Do It Better

 

We’re going to make an assumption here and assume that all Republican members in Congress are against the Iran nuclear deal.

 

Sarcasim

 

Yes, bold I know. But considering we’re coming up on an election year, we just can’t see a single Republican coming out and going against their party. So if you were to take that into account, the real question here is how many Democrats are against the deal?

 

 

Where It Stands in the House

The House

 

Out of the 435 members in the House, 246 of them are Republican. So it’s safe to say that they would all be a “no” on the Iran nuclear deal. So if you need 290 members to override a veto in the House AND you already have 246 members against the Iran nuclear deal; that would mean you would need 44 Democrats to be against the deal!

 

After cross referencing multiple news sources, interviews, and press releases we can confidently say 17 House Democrats will be voting against the deal.

 

  • Rep. David Scott (Georgia)

  • Rep. Nita Lowey (New York)

  • Rep. Alcee Hastings (Florida)

  • Rep. Eliot Engel (New York)

  • Rep. Brad Sherman (California)

  • Rep. Juan Vargas (California)

  • Rep. Ted Deutch (Florida)

  • Rep. Steve Israel (New York)

  • Rep. Albio Sires (New Jersey)

  • Rep. Grace Meng (New York)

  • Rep. Kathleen Rice (New York)

  • Rep. Donald Norcross (New Jersey)

  • Rep. Brad Ashford (Nebraska)

  • Rep. Brendan Boyle (Pennsylvania)

  • Rep. Lois Frankel (Florida)

  • Rep. Dan Lipinski (Illinois)

  • Rep. Carolyn Maloney (New York)

 

That would mean they would need another 27 Democrats in the House to go against the deal to have enough members to override the veto. Considering there are 94 Democrats – from our estimates anyway – that are either wary or unsure about the Iran deal, having enough votes to override President Obama’s veto and kill the Iran deal is very possible in the House!

 

 

Where It Stands in the Senate

Senate Club

 

Applying similar rules as we did with the House, out of the 100 members in the Senate, there are 54 Republicans in the Senate. That means there are out of the remaining 46 members, you need to have 13 members go against the deal. (Note: There are also two independents as well in the Senate, but they are Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Angus King, both who support the nuclear deal.)

 

As of this writing – having again cross referenced multiple news sources, interviews, and press releases – there are just 4 Democrats that a currently against the deal.

 

  • Sen. Robert Menendez (New Jersey)

  • Sen. Chuck Schumer (New York)

  • Sen. Ben Cardin (Maryland)

  • Sen. Joe Manchin (West Virginia)

 

That means to override President Obama’s veto and kill the Iran deal, they would need 11 more Democrats to be against the deal. Currently from our estimates, there are 41 members in the Senate that will support the Iran nuclear deal. Considering all they need is 34 Democratic members to back the Iran deal, President Obama looks to have enough votes to pass in the Senate and not need his veto.

 

 

The Verdict

Judge in Ace Attorney

 

The House could very well reject the Iran nuclear deal, while in the Senate the deal will pass. Considering you need the Senate AND the House to override the nuclear deal, the congressional math is in President Obama’s favor.

 

Prediction: The Iran Nuclear Deal Passes!!!

 

 

(Photo Credit: Google Images, Wikipedia, Capcom Unity)

 

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